Metals Mostly Decline, LME Nickel Only Rises, Alumina Falls 2.81%, European Shipping Index Surges Over 3% [[SMM Daily Review]]

SMM News on April 30:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, domestic base metals collectively declined, with SHFE nickel leading the losses at 0.61%, followed by SHFE lead at 0.59% and SHFE zinc at 0.42%. The remaining metals experienced minor fluctuations, with the main alumina contract down 2.81%.

Additionally, the main lithium carbonate contract fell 0.78%, the main polysilicon contract dropped 0.04%, and the main silicon metal contract declined 1.21%. Conversely, the main European container shipping contract rose 3.42%.

The ferrous metals series also saw a collective decline, with iron ore down 0.78%, rebar and HRC both falling over 0.4% (rebar at 0.42%, HRC at 0.44%). In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal fell 0.59% and coke dropped 0.97%.

In the overseas market, as of 15:04, only LME nickel rose, by 0.26%. LME copper fell 1.13%, LME aluminum dropped 0.49%, and LME zinc declined 0.43%. The remaining metals experienced minor fluctuations.

In the precious metals segment, as of 15:04, COMEX gold fell 0.5% and COMEX silver dropped 1.51%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.89% and SHFE silver declined 0.41%.

Market conditions as of 15:04 today

》Click to view SMM market dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Aspects:

[National Bureau of Statistics: April PMI at 49%, Manufacturing Enterprises Focused on Domestic Sales Generally Stable] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics announced today (30th) China's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for April. Affected by factors such as the rapid changes in the external environment, the manufacturing PMI for April fell slightly MoM, but high-tech manufacturing and related industries continued to expand, and the production and operation of manufacturing enterprises focused on domestic sales remained generally stable. The manufacturing PMI for April in China was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points MoM. From the perspective of key industries, the overall market demand for new growth drivers maintained a steady and increasing momentum, with domestic market demand showing good growth. The high-tech manufacturing PMI for April was 51.5%, significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level, continuing a good development trend. The new orders index for the consumer goods manufacturing industry was also at the critical point of 50%, indicating a good release of domestic market demand in the consumer goods manufacturing industry. From the perspective of enterprise expectations, the expected index for production and operation activities in April was 52.1%, continuing to be in the expansion territory. From the perspective of the non-manufacturing sector, the non-manufacturing sector as a whole continued to expand, with positive performances in investment, consumption, and new growth driver-related activities. The business activity index for the service sector in April was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points MoM, but still above the critical point. Among them, activities related to residents' tourism and leisure performed well, and industries related to the information service sector remained active. 》Click to view details

The PBOC conducted 530.8 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.50%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 108 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan was achieved on the day.

►The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market on April 30 was 7.2014 RMB per US dollar.

US Dollar Aspects:

As of 15:04, the US dollar index rose 0.05%. The US goods trade deficit in March grew 9.6% to a new high of $162 billion. Import value increased 5% to $342.7 billion, possibly due to companies rushing to import goods to avoid comprehensive tariffs; export value only rose 1.2% to $180.8 billion.

Data released by the Conference Board on the 29th showed that, affected by deteriorating expectations, the US consumer confidence index in April fell for the fifth consecutive month to its lowest level since May 2020 and was lower than the 87.5 predicted by economists. The data showed that the US Conference Board consumer confidence index in April was 86, down from 92.9 in the previous month, with a market expectation of 87.5. The market is awaiting the release of key US data this week, including PCE and non-farm payrolls, to gauge the policy outlook of the US Fed.

Data Aspects:

Today, the US April ADP employment change, the preliminary annualized QoQ actual GDP rate for Q1, the preliminary QoQ GDP price index rate for Q1, the preliminary annualized QoQ core PCE price index rate for Q1, the preliminary annualized QoQ consumer spending rate for Q1, the preliminary QoQ implicit GDP deflator rate for Q1 - seasonally adjusted, the US April Chicago PMI, the US March personal spending MoM rate, the US March annual core PCE price index, the US March seasonally adjusted pending home sales index MoM rate, the Australia Q1 CPI QoQ rate, the Australia Q1 CPI YoY rate, the preliminary France Q1 GDP annual rate, the Germany March actual retail sales MoM rate, the Germany March actual retail sales YoY rate, the Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the Germany April seasonally adjusted change in the number of unemployed persons, the preliminary Germany Q1 unadjusted quarterly GDP annual rate, the preliminary Germany April CPI annual rate, the Switzerland April Credit Suisse/CFA economic expectations index, the preliminary eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted GDP QoQ rate, the preliminary eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted GDP annual rate, and the Canada February seasonally adjusted GDP annual rate, among other data, will be announced.

It should be noted that on April 30, there will be no night session trading on the China's SGE, SHFE, ZCE, and DCE due to the Labour Day holiday.

Crude Oil Aspects:

As of 15:04, oil prices in both markets fell together, with US crude down 1.26% and Brent crude down 1.12%. OPEC+ plans to implement a production increase plan exceeding expectations from May, while also launching a compensatory production cut plan for previous overproduction. However, OPEC+'s internal unity is facing severe tests. Data shows that although Kazakhstan has committed to making up for its overproduction by gradually cutting production by 1.3 million barrels per day by April 2026, its actual daily average production from April 1 to 28 was still as high as 1.814 million barrels, significantly higher than its OPEC+ production quota of 1.473 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan's continuous exceeding of its quota has triggered strong dissatisfaction among other oil-producing countries within the alliance.

From the perspective of inventory, a report released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventories increased more than expected last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined. Specifically, as of the week ending April 25, US crude oil inventories rose 3.8 million barrels WoW, significantly higher than the market expectation of a 400,000-barrel increase; at the same time, gasoline inventories fell 3.1 million barrels and distillate inventories dropped 2.5 million barrels, with declines far exceeding analysts' previous estimates of 1 million barrels and 1.6 million barrels, respectively. The unexpected accumulation of crude oil inventories has exacerbated market concerns about a supply surplus, and subsequent attention should be paid to the verification of API data by official EIA data. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

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